Since I knew there was some awareness around the inflation issue, I began the conversation by talking about the 7% inflation increase reported in the financial news Wednesday January 12th. I am not as concerned about the type of inflation currently roiling the markets. Supply disruptions due to COVID are not the same type of forces causing inflation today compared to those that got out of hand in the late 70’s early 80’s. Then the value of a dollar was under attack because we officially went off the gold standard and it took time for the new Oil/Dollar system to assert itself. This inflation is more like the bouts we experienced after the end of World War 2, The Korean war, and the Vietnam war. We just fought a war on the COVID, and it will take a little time for inflation to calm down. Meanwhile interest rates will rise as the fed begins to unwind the stimulus that helped us weather the economic fallout from the early days of the Pandemic. It is not in the interest of the US government to see higher interest costs become part of its borrowing through bond offerings.
I compared the government to a bank. The bank takes in deposits and pays low interest rates. It then loans money out at higher rates and books a profit. Governments borrow money at low interest rates (@2%) and benefit from the slightly higher rate of inflation that has become normal across global countries and currencies. Inflation of @3.14 (pi) makes paying off the debt easier over a long period of time. Inflation of this level encourages people to keep spending. Buy it now or it will be more expensive next year is usually the gentle nudge that keeps us out of deflationary spirals. The Fed is worried that rising prices will cause people to panic buy and cause the economy to overheat for a period of time and then exhaust itself which could lead to recession or worse deflation. Tapping the breaks is what the Fed is attempting to do. Slowing the economy does not mean throwing it into reverse. Think about tapping the breaks as you go around the bend.
Government policy can cause markets to reassess the value placed on certain assets and sectors. Each company on its own merits is attempting to grow within this environment. Earnings season has not yet ramped up and so the current news cycle influencing markets is politics, COVID and macro economic news. Fundamentals drive the long-term value of stocks. Expect volatility to remain elevated. Once earnings season begins, we may see volatility calm down. It starts to slow this week and really gets cranking in the next few weeks. Expectations are that growth will be good. Just not as good as during the recovery period.
Most of the financial reports focused on the 2022 market outlook are calling this a year of transition. We have recovered from the COVID selloff and are now shifting phase into the next bull market expansion. The same way water boiling, or ice melting takes a lot more energy to break bonds before temperatures can rise again the market is flatter and more volatile for a period of time. The biggest variable is still COVID. But we are in transition from Pandemic to Endemic. The current surge will likely be the biggest and last of this particular Pandemic. From here we will treat the disease more like other seasonal afflictions. The common cold (of which I recently suffered) is a coronavirus and most of us get it and don’t worry about from whom or to whom its spread. The flu we don’t want to get, and we take precautions based on our individual assessment of risk. I also think we do a better job of remembering who gave it to us and are of happy to quarantine ourselves because we feel like crap.
Last year the worst place to have your money was some of the best places to have it in 2020. Aggressive growth and the stocks that did well during the early days of the pandemic were some of the worst performers of 2021. The safest way to lose money in 2021 was to own bonds. In a common investment allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds you would have seen almost half the portfolio lose money. With interest rates still at historic lows the yields on bonds aren’t paying very well in the face of the risk that inflation and rates rise. Bonds are often put into a portfolio to reduce volatility. Selecting the right kinds of bonds and alternative income investments might allow for risk management with better returns. Unfortunately, most financial media don’t do a good job of covering the bond market. Interest rate sensitive investments may not perform as well as economically sensitive. Our exposure to munis, high yield, floating rate, and loans was a big reason our allocation to bonds performed well in 2021.
I spoke about a client who had a new 401k plan. She filled in the risk tolerance questionnaire and her score was a six out of 10. It suggested she allocate 30% to bonds. This type of risk assessment is based on a person’s sensitivity to volatility or the change in prices up and down over shorter periods of time. I asked her if she pays any attention to her 401k plan. She said no. I asked, “when it dropped a lot in March of 2020 did you panic or even look at it?” she said no. In this case she isn’t benefitting from having the bonds in the portfolio. She doesn’t look and she doesn’t care. Another way to assess risk is this: Are you invested in a way that will allow you to achieve your goals? If your 401k doesn’t have access to a wide variety of bond and bond alternatives, then it is important to understand what they do for you and also what they might do to you over the next few years. Industry pundits are calling the 60/40 portfolio into question because the last 40 years has been a bull market for bonds and the next 40 are far from certain that they will come remotely close to providing the kinds of return and volatility that made the basic portfolio successful in the past. In this case the past (especially if you only look back 40 years) is not necessarily a good indicator of the risk and returns of the future.
My mom when learning to ski had an observation that holds true for investment management. She said, “I realize that if I don’t want to run into the trees, I shouldn’t look at them.” In investment terms it is the person who looks too often at the ups and downs of the market that often runs into trouble. Looking at the long term and your personal financial goals through the lens of a well thought out financial plan will help keep you from skiing off the trail.
Real Estate and Car Sales came up during our discussion. The two are related and it requires an open mind to really understand why car stocks and real estate stocks have performed so well over the last year. And more importantly, where do we think they go from here? The work from home wave seems to lead to the conclusion that people will be driving less. The work from home wave means people can live anywhere and so the places people want to live and work from home are seeing some of the biggest increases in prices. SO – less driving to work might at first pass seem like less mileage on cars and would lead to lower sales over the long term. However, I’ll use myself as an example, the drive to work is 5 miles and that’s 2500 miles per year. One road trip could equal that. If I can work from anywhere, I might be inclined to take more trips. One trip to Walmart from my house in Bethel is greater than a week’s worth of commuting mileage. On top of that, a lot of people who use to live in the city and take trains, busses and cabs are now in the market for a car. Plus, the changeover from gasoline to electric is driving a faster turnover in part due to higher gas prices. And we haven’t even addressed the supply imbalance or lower interest rates. Rising rates could curb a bit of this kind of inflation. It unlikely to throw things into reverse.
In summary we, like LPL and other financial organizations we follow for advice about the future, believe that COVID will recede and when it does the economy will expand. The FED will tap the breaks and raise interest rates. It will do so at a rate the economy can handle. Inflation will most likely moderate. Normalization then likely leads to a new wave of growth and the bull market that started in March of 2020 may resume. Please contact us if you feel like the volatility of your investments are making you feel queasy. By reaching out to us you help us customize your experience and respond appropriately to your individual circumstances. Peace.
We look forward to seeing you next month at our February Open Office Hour Zoom on Wednesday, February 9th at 4:30p ET.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
All investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.