Heard on the airplane, that masks won’t be required on flights after the 18th of this month. Restrictions are going away, cases and hospitalizations are going down, which would be perfect for travel and leisure sector to recover. Yet with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we are experiencing another low point in the markets.
NASDAQ was down 20% from its all-time high yesterday, March 8th, which is defined as a Bear market. As we look at where the markets have ended up, how they gained, how they fell, and now because of the war, the volatility has been impacted by the conflict overseas. Let’s hope a peace agreement can be reached. I am intentionally only reading about this from the perspective of protecting your investments and portfolios. If you have money in oil or gold, your investments may be doing better than if you have tech stocks, equities. We have tools to protect your portfolio with a protective put to protect against catastrophe linked to the Ukrainian conflict but I hope your portfolios are significantly higher one year from now which is often the case under these circumstances. We have sent out communications with that kind of historical perspective.
Last month we were worried more about the Fed’s raising interest rates, perhaps as much as half a percent in March. Yet if the Fed is on pause due to the uncertainty of the war it might be good for stocks. Today’s significant upturn in the market, could be related to short-sellers adding to the folks buying more stocks.
LPL noted today about how the commodities sector has surged higher. Many of you have exposure to commodities through oil royalties, gold or through substitutions – like alternative energy, which was up 120% two years ago. At the beginning of 2021, you may have had plenty of exposure, which has dropped more recently.
We haven’t heard much about China lately. China continues to put pressure on technology sector. When we look at exposure to what’s happening there, many of you are invested in an Emerging Market fund. What happens there matters more to the global economy. They can make decision quickly and I expect them to change their minds and reverse policies that haven’t been working. China has money, so it’s unlikely that the Chinese will reach for weapons because they can compete with the wallet.
Cybersecurity stocks, like the etf HACK, have momentum and could do well in this kind of cold war environment. Also, undervalued asset classes would be another area to go with new money.
Inflation in relation to bonds. When the Feds raise interest rates, bond values go down. How are we going to generate income? Better during inflationary periods to own real assets like real estate for rent, which generate income. When looking at how to navigate this environment, bonds are not as safe as we’ve been told they are for a really long period of time. Bonds that are sensitive to long term interest rates can and often do lose value during this part of the business cycle. We need to be selective and careful about how to be allocated here. The traditional 60/40 portfolio may not work the way it has for the last 40 years.
US Dollar has rallied due to Russia-Ukraine conflict. The conflict has added to inflation pressures We do see imbalances working themselves out with the receding severity of the pandemic and would do so again with a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Inflation should moderate in the weeks and months ahead.
As always, please reach out for a 1:1 meeting if you have any questions, concerns or what to discuss your portfolio.
All return’s data was found on www.marketwatch.com
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